Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Jairam gets hot and cold at Copenhagen


By Bhaskar Goswami
Copenhagen, 16 Dec 2009


Inside view of Bella Centre, the heart of action
(photo: Bhaskar Goswami)

Frequent change of stance and partners has not helped India's cause in the ongoing Copenhagen conference.

After a disastrous beginning with "The President of Maldives called up but I did not have the time to take his call", Minister Jairam Ramesh ought to have slowly got into the grind of negotiations at Copenhagen. However, piqued by the push away from Kyoto Protocol to a single treaty binding all nations, Ramesh labelled Australia as the "Ayatollah" of single track! He also abandoned a meeting with Australia's Climate Change Minister, Penny Wong, stating that he was "too busy". The rate he is going, he may well be left with not many friends at Copenhagen.

Not that Ramesh desperately needs friends as he seems to have smoothed out the rough edges of BASIC partners (Brazil-South Africa-India-China). However he has failed to patch the cracks among the G77+China grouping which were apparent when African countries staged a walkout from COP negotiations on Monday. When Australia retaliated by blocking talks on emission reduction by rich countries, the UNFCCC stepped in and suggested India and Australia to bilaterally sort out the issue which was unacceptable to Ramesh.

The draft texts and the intractable stands taken by the developed and developing countries will make a deal at Copenhagen difficult. While the negotiations have numerous unresolved issues, in lay terms there are five key areas of clear divisions between nations (apart from finance and technology transfer):

The base year of 1990 versus that of 2005 for emission cuts are keeping negotiators divided; later the base year, higher can the emissions go for most countries.
The cap in temperature increase at either 1.50C or 2.00C is a major point of contention between developed, developing and emerging economies. For island nations to survive rising seas, temperature must be capped at 1.50C. But the rest of the world, including India, is unwilling to concede.
China and India are insisting on cuts in emission intensity - emission per unit of GDP. These cuts are anything but real cuts in overall emission especially for India where bulk of the GDP is from a low-emission sector (services). Increased GDP due to expansion of services will bring down India's emission intensity but not necessarily the overall or per capita emission, as is being pointed out by developed countries.
Developed countries want international bodies to be able to monitor, report and verify (MRV) emission cuts which is being steadfastly resisted by India; no surprises here given the questionable record on transparency and accountability of the Ministry of Environment and Forests in granting fast-track clearances to polluting industries.


Amongst all this discussion, the critical role played by agriculture in climate change has hardly found any takers at Bella Centre. Agriculture contributes around 17 percent of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, primarily due to practice of industrial agriculture. If one factors in industrial dairying and animal farming, food miles, trade in agri-commodities, food packaging, etc., the share of agriculture to GHG emission could zoom over 40 percent.

Minister Ramesh has a golden opportunity to actually bring about meaningful cuts in emissions by advocating sustainable agricultural practices. And this need not be at the behest of rich countries. If India plans to save its agriculture it will in any case have to tread this path. This will, however, require tremendous political lobbying back home as there are business opportunities for industrial agriculture input producers and suppliers: in fertilisers, pesticides, chemicals, irrigation pump-sets, tractors etc.


With the date for several Heads of States dropping in at Copenhagen approaching fast, the pressure on negotiators from major countries to deliver on a deal is very high. The unresolved issues reflected as square brackets in the draft texts remain while available indications are that India believes Kyoto Protocol can be saved only if Copenhagen fails. This is despite the USA not subscribing to the KP. Right now, nobody wants to be in India's shoes: it initially passed the baton over to the USA, borrowed it back after protests back home and at the Bella Centre, and is now moored somewhere in the middle of the track unsure which way lies the finishing line.

Reclaim Power!

What with bulk of the civil society denied admission to Bella Centre, trouble is brewing. The UN initially goofed up by accrediting almost double the numbers than what Bella Centre can hold. Now with Heads of States dropping in and the intensity of protests likely to go up, the organisers have announced that fresh passes will be issued to NGOs seeking entry at the Bella Centre with a caveat: not all will be eligible and the eligibility criteria will not be spelled out either! No wonder NGOs are up in arms against the UN.

Meanwhile, Climate Justice Action (http://www.climate-justice-action.org/) call to take over Bella Centre on December 16 and turn it into a People's Assembly is running full steam and hundreds of protesters are marching towards the convention centre. Violence is expected and law enforcers are out in full strength.

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