G77's unity cracks at Copenhagen

By Bhaskar Goswami
Copenhagen, 08 Dec 2009

Delegates arriving for Copenhagen Conference (photo: Bhaskar Goswami)

Major developing nations dilute their demand on emission cut commitments of industrialised countries, leaving poor and island nations high and dry at Copenhagen conference.

At the Bella Centre, Copenhagen, it would not be out of place to feel being part of a mammoth international carnival. With a capacity of 15,000 people, the convention centre has been overwhelmed by around 34,000 participants having applied for accreditation to the 15th meeting of the Conference of Parties (COP 15) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This is by far the biggest meeting, attended by 192 countries on the issue that is affecting billions worldwide. The media too has turned up in such massive numbers that their accreditation was suspended after the figure reached 5,000 on the opening day yesterday!

The highlight of the first day was when "Climategate" found mention at the opening speech by Dr. R. K. Pachauri, Chairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The second day opened with a bang as Michel Jarraud, Chief, World Meteorological Organisation, announced that by early next year when the final data is analysed, 2009 is likely to emerge as the fifth warmest since 1850. Pointing out the extremes of weather witnessed in 2009, Jarraud cited China's worst drought in five decades, Australia's third warmest year and the hottest temperature ever recorded in Vancouver, Canada (not a word about the situation in India... perhaps the report will carry more details).

Meanwhile, the much talked about "Danish Text" was leaked to the world by Guardian1. This caused a major furore as the text is a major departure from the Kyoto protocol and seeks to shift power away from the UN to a chosen few industrialised nations. Few outraged delegates from developing countries were seen mingling with civil society groups while the latter went about the Convention Centre periodically rocking things around a bit with peaceful demonstrations and sloganeering.

The BASIC group (Brazil, South Africa, India and China) tabled a diluted version of demands on developed countries ostensibly to align with the USA. This has caused severe cracks in the G77+China group. In a move that appears as retaliatory, the Association of Small Oasis States (AOSIS), most vulnerable to the rising sea levels due to global warming, is likely to come out with its own declaration that may be in variance of the G77+China communiqué. The UK is trying to exploit this crack by trying to whip up support for AOSIS to demand emission cuts from emerging economies like China and India. The likely winner would be the USA due to this distrustful move by India and the rest of the BASIC bloc.