New drafts appear, but differences persist

By Bhaskar Goswami
Copenhagen, 12 Dec 2009

Fearing failure of Copenhagen conference due to widening rift between developed and developing countries, two new drafts are issued for negotiations to bridge the divisions.

Time is fast running out for the climate negotiators (photo: Bhaskar Goswami)
The morning of 11th December sprung twin surprises for delegates: The Ad-hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action (AWG-LCA) and the AWG on the Kyoto Protocol (KP) issued draft texts for negotiations. Both the texts were issued by the respective Chairs without a prior announcement. Since both developed and developing countries appeared surprised and exuded mixed responses to this, it seems that Yvo de Boer, the UN Climate Chief might have decided to take things back in his hands… about time!

The 7-page LCA text did not evince much discussion to begin with but in a bit many delegates expressed their reservations, including USA, Bolivia and several African nations. The draft appears as a please-all document to begin with.

Firstly, the global temperature rise above pre-industrial levels ought to be capped at 1.50 or 2.00. Secondly, collective reduction of global emission ought to be at least 50-95 percent from 1990 levels by 2050; and thirdly, developed countries must reduce their Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions by at least 75 to more than 95 percent from 1990 level by 2050. Further, developing countries also must reduce their GHG emissions in the range of 25 (minimum) to 45 percent from 1990 levels by 2020.

This is a body blow to the developed countries, particularly US which will find it difficult to get the Senate to ratify a 1990 baseline for emission cuts and has therefore been demanding 2005 as the base year. Since US will be unwilling to agree to these cuts, EU will follow suit too. Further, developed countries have endorsed a 20 C temperature target while developing countries, especially the most vulnerable ones, want it to be capped at 1.50 C.

The AWG on Kyoto Protocol has spelled out further emission reductions for developed countries which is a welcome development. However, it has left out USA from its purview. Emission reduction goals that are set to expire in 2012 are sought to be extended to at least 2017. It will be quite difficult to get the developed countries to agree to the provisions as most of them are against a simple extension of Kyoto Protocol and instead want a single new treaty that would set curbs on emissions by all major nations.

What's on the table: three potential emissions goals for 2050, three developed-country targets for 2020 and two possible temperature targets to limit global warming.

Many developing countries, on the other hand, want a two-track approach: one that would extend Kyoto with its deep emissions cuts for the developed countries, while creating a new and non - (or less) binding accord for developing countries. The draft also leaves open the scale of financing to assist developing countries to curb emissions growth and to protect themselves against climate impacts. The draft is also silent on when emissions should peak and when should they begin to fall. Given these deep divisions it would be a Herculean task for the Chairs to reach an accord for "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed."

India Speaks, Finally!

Finally, after five days into the negotiations, for the first time a Press Conference was held by the Indian delegation. The Chief Negotiator, Shyam Saran, who flew back to New Delhi apparently seeking a fresh political direction after the G77+China goof-up, is back along with Minister Jairam Ramesh. It is now known that Ramesh has been instructed not to stray from the line drawn by the cabinet.

At 7.00 PM Ramesh held a Press Conference where he said that he has held four key meetings since he landed in the afternoon: Todd Stern of US, Ed Miliband (UK), Xie Zhenhua (China) and Kamil Djemouai (Africa group). Ramesh said that he has conveyed two non-acceptable issues: India will not accept any binding cuts, and nor will it accept any global verification on targets.

Ramesh stressed that he will seek a FAB deal - Fair, Ambitious and Binding - a term ostensibly borrowed from the tcktcktck campaign (http://tcktcktck.org/), a global movement comprising of around 188 organisations. In a clear departure from the demand of island nations, Ramesh ruled out accepting a 1.50 C cap, thus driving a wedge through the G77. India will also not accept a peaking year as there is a massive backlog of rural electrification. Thus, cheaper but polluting options of power production in India will continue to find favour over allocation of massive funds dedicated to application of renewable technologies for electrification of remote rural areas.